Foldables are about 2% of the phones shipped worldwide. Bloomberg's Power On newsletter argues the iPhone Duo pushes that past half within a decade, the way the original iPhone took smartphones from about 6% of shipments to a majority six years after launch. Smartphones are about 85% of handsets today.
The case rests on Apple having found reasons to unfold on day one: video, gaming, and photography, with the second screen as a viewfinder, an upgraded StandBy mode, and an alarm-clock mode for when the phone props itself up. The newsletter ranks the Duo a notch below the 1998 iMac, the iPod, the iPad, and the Apple Watch, expects it to be the dominant foldable by early next year, and reads the name as room for a family, a Duo Max or a Duo mini. It was also John Ternus's first launch as CEO, with Tim Cook, now executive chairman, stepping out of the spotlight for it.
It won't be as fast as the smartphone shift, the newsletter concedes, because foldables are still expensive and still make compromises. Its answer is time: component costs fall, and Apple's upgrade leasing program eventually goes international, with the monthly rate rather than the sticker at the center of the marketing.
iPhone Duo Animation
The Q&A at the bottom of the same issue is the more useful read for buyers. It calls Face ID and a telephoto camera the top two priorities for future Duo models and guesses both arrive by the third generation, through smaller parts and computational tricks, with an early look in Apple's upcoming smart-home hub. That's the tension in the forecast. The Duo that makes folding normal is probably not this one, and first-generation Apple hardware is for early adopters; TrendForce's iPhone Duo forecast of 5 million units this year is a count of them.
The Genius Bar comes back
The same issue reports Apple is speeding up store renovations and walking back part of the Angela Ahrendts era, when stores were pitched as community gathering places. New and upgraded stores get four changes:
- An online pickup bay on the Avenue, the side wall, in wood with secure drawers and a handoff table
- A Today at Apple bay beside it, a large display over drawers for the instructor's gear
- The giant video walls at the back of the store, removed
- A dedicated Genius Bar in their place, all wood, with two counter heights for accessibility
Apple has tested the pieces internationally over the past year and plans a broad rollout over several years, with new break rooms behind the scenes and a stricter pre-opening routine: staff stand through the morning meeting and applaud the first customers in. For iPhoners booking a repair, a dedicated counter again is the part that matters.
Two smaller items close the issue. The iPhone game controllers spotted in iOS code are headed for the Beats brand, with Beats executives running the project, and the new Apple TV, the box the Apple TV code tied to an A19-class chip, is expected this fall with Siri AI.
