Foldables were a flat business until this week. TrendForce's September 10 forecast has global foldable shipments at about 20.2 million units this year, up half a percent, and the only reason the number isn't negative is the iPhone Duo: 5 million units and a 24.8 percent share for a phone whose iPhone Duo launch is still six weeks out.
Read the rest of the table and it's a swap, not growth. Android brands fall to 15.2 million combined, down more than 20 percent, which is roughly the 5 million Apple adds. Samsung keeps the lead at 7.1 million and 35.1 percent; Huawei lands on the same 5 million and 24.8 percent as Apple. On these numbers nobody is selling foldables to new people. Apple is selling them to buyers who were going to get one anyway, plus whoever waited for the logo.
TrendForce's spec sheet matches Apple's: a 7.6-inch inner display and a 5.4-inch cover, 5.2mm open and 11.3mm closed, 254 grams, a Grade 5 titanium frame, side-mounted Touch ID in place of Face ID, and a 48MP main camera doing 2x by crop. The firm's one editorial line is about the missing lens: "Apple has omitted a dedicated periscope telephoto camera to minimize thickness and conserve internal space," it writes. The crease work is a 10-layer stack of ultra-thin glass, optically clear adhesive, and OLED, which is the part of the phone the supply chain is being asked to upgrade.
Five million in ten weeks is a fourth-quarter number dressed as a year, and it has Apple shipping as many foldables between late October and New Year's as Huawei does in twelve months. That's either a very confident supply chain or a forecast that assumes the launch runs clean. Either way, the trade-off TrendForce names outlasts the forecast: the telephoto stayed on the 18 Pro, and the buyer who wants both now carries two phones.
